AI Predictive Analytics · Daily Briefings

Put inter-project capital to work, with evidence you can audit

Theleys analyses real-time market and macro data to support allocation decisions for money held between freelance projects. Every recommendation is explained in a structured daily report, so automation never becomes a black box.

Designed for UK sole traders and limited company directors managing invoice gaps, retainer surplus and tax reserves in GBP.

The idle capital paradox for independent professionals

Freelance income arrives in blocks. A strong quarter leaves surplus cash in a business account, followed by a quiet period of pitching, delivery gaps and late invoice settlement. That surplus must simultaneously cover living costs, corporation tax and VAT, and remain available at short notice.

  • Feast periods create drag. Surplus held entirely in cash preserves access but leaves short-term potential unexamined.
  • Famine periods create pressure. When projects pause, manual market watching is the first task to slip, and decisions become reactive.
  • Systematic allocation offers an alternative. A defined risk profile, volatility buffer and daily review replace ad-hoc judgement with a repeatable process.
DimensionReactive, manual approachAI-assisted predictive approach
Data basisHeadlines and occasional checksContinuous ingestion of market and macro signals
Risk viewImplicit and undocumentedExplicit thresholds with volatility buffering
Liquidity planningEstimated from memoryMapped to invoice dates and tax deadlines
Review rhythmWhen time allowsStructured daily briefing with rationale log
Theleys overview of structured freelance cash-flow analysis

A calm operating view: runway, reserves and risk thresholds kept in one place, reviewed daily.


Clarity over black-box algorithms

Transparent performance tracking with daily reports is the foundation of Theleys. You receive the same fields every morning, in the same order, written for a non-technical reader. If a model adjusts exposure, the report states what changed, why, and what it means for liquidity.

1 · Data inputsSource list

Market prices, volatility indices, GBP macro releases and your configured horizons. Each input is timestamped.

2 · Risk exposure2.1 / 10

Current exposure against your threshold, with buffer status for the next invoice gap.

3 · Model rationalePlain English

Short log entries, for example: “Reduced short-duration exposure as volatility widened.”

4 · Liquidity status14-day horizon

Available balance, reserved amounts for tax, and expected settlement timeline.

Data inputs — what was observed

Every briefing lists the datasets consulted and their cut-off times, so you can verify recency and coverage.

Risk exposure — where you stand

Volatility exposure and confidence intervals are shown numerically, not as vague labels. Limits are set by you during onboarding.

Model rationale — why it changed

Adjustments are recorded as discrete log lines with cause and effect. No silent rebalancing.

Liquidity status — what remains accessible

Runway, tax reserve ring-fencing and settlement windows are restated daily, aligned to sole trader and Ltd realities.

How daily audits preserve your control

Review takes under five minutes. You can hold, adjust thresholds, or pause automated analysis at any point. The audit trail remains available for your accountant or for year-end review, supporting disciplined record-keeping without added administration.


From data ingestion to decision support in four defined stages

The engine follows a documented sequence. Each stage has a clear function and a verifiable output in your daily briefing.

1

Real-time ingestion

Market pricing, volatility measures and relevant macro releases are collected continuously and normalised for analysis.

Output: timestamped input list
2

Scenario modelling

Predictive models test a range of near-term paths, weighted to freelance horizons such as project gaps and tax dates.

Output: confidence interval + scenarios
3

Risk calibration

Exposure is checked against your threshold. Volatility buffers are applied to protect runway and reserved funds.

Output: exposure score + buffer status
4

Daily digest

Findings are compiled into a concise briefing with actions for review. Nothing executes without a logged rationale.

Output: 07:30 briefing + rationale log

Three capital cycles, one disciplined process

Different engagements create different cash shapes. Theleys adapts thresholds and horizons to each pattern while keeping reporting identical.

Scenario 01 · Between contracts

Preserve runway, optimise short-term yield

For contractors facing a 4–8 week gap. Priority is continuity of living costs and business overheads, with cautious analysis of idle balances.

  • Runway-first threshold with conservative exposure
  • Liquidity horizon tied to next likely start date
  • Daily check on buffer adequacy
Horizon: 30–60 days · GBP
Scenario 02 · Retainer surplus

Allocate steady monthly overflow

For consultants with stable retainers producing monthly surplus. Surplus above a defined operating floor is analysed with calibrated risk.

  • Operating floor set with your accountant
  • Overflow analysed separately from core cash
  • Monthly review of threshold fit
Horizon: rolling monthly · GBP
Scenario 03 · Tax & VAT reserve

Low-volatility modelling for reserves

For directors ring-fencing corporation tax and VAT. The emphasis is on capital preservation and clear separation from operating funds.

  • Reserve ring-fencing with strict limits
  • Low-volatility decision modelling only
  • Deadline-aware liquidity mapping
Horizon: to filing date · GBP

Guardrails that keep you in charge

Automation should reduce workload, not reduce visibility. These principles govern every analysis Theleys produces.

  • Read-only transparency: you see inputs, models and rationales in full before any action is confirmed.
  • Non-black-box modelling: every adjustment carries a plain-English explanation and confidence level.
  • Liquidity first: tax reserves and runway buffers are treated as constraints, not preferences.
  • UK alignment: horizons, tax references and reporting rhythms reflect sole trader and Ltd structures.
Our position on risk: all allocation analysis involves risk, including potential loss. Theleys provides decision support and downside calibration — it does not promise returns or eliminate uncertainty. Daily reports exist so you can judge that risk with full information.

Frequently asked questions

What exactly appears in the daily report?

Four blocks: data inputs with timestamps, risk exposure with confidence interval, a rationale log for any change, and liquidity status showing available, reserved and pending settlement amounts in GBP.

How quickly can I access funds?

Liquidity horizons are configured at onboarding, typically 7–21 days depending on your invoice cycle. The daily briefing restates the current horizon and any pending settlement windows, so access timelines remain visible.

How are risk thresholds set?

You define maximum volatility exposure, reserve floors and pause triggers with guided onboarding. The system calibrates within those bounds and flags any recommendation that would approach a limit.

Is it compatible with sole trader and Ltd structures?

Yes. Profiles distinguish between sole trader cash flow and limited company reserves, including separate handling for corporation tax and VAT ring-fencing and dividend planning context.

Do I need financial expertise to use it?

No specialist background is required. Reports use plain English, define terms such as volatility exposure and confidence interval on first use, and link each metric to its practical implication for your runway.

Review the analysis before you commit to it

Start with evidence. Inspect a sample daily intelligence brief to see the fields, language and level of detail, or initialise your portfolio parameters to receive calibrated analysis for your own cash cycle.

Capital at risk. The value of analysed allocations can fall as well as rise. Theleys provides data analysis and decision support; it does not provide regulated financial advice. Consider seeking independent advice and only allocate funds you can afford to leave analysed over the stated horizon. Past model behaviour is not an indicator of future outcomes.